Iran Conflict Update: Brent hit $119/bbl · Strait of Hormuz risk elevated · Markets on high alert
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Proprietary Indicators
STRATE FUND RESEARCH
Global Risk AppetiteRisk-Off
28/100
VIX, EM spreads, credit & cross-asset flows. Extreme caution zone.
Monetary Policy PressureEasing Bias
61/100
Fed rate path probability + real yield spread + financial conditions.
Geopolitical Stress IndexCritical
87/100
Iran + Taiwan + Russia-Ukraine. Energy supply chain at systemic risk.
Earnings Momentum ScoreNeutral
52/100
Forward EPS revisions + beat rate + guidance revision breadth.
Credit Stress IndicatorElevated
73/100
HY spreads + IG OAS + leveraged loan conditions + default rates.
Inflation PersistenceModerate
44/100
Core PCE trend + energy pass-through + wages + shelter CPI.
MARKET REGIME DETECTION MODEL™
34
/100
RISK-OFF · DEFENSIVE
BearNeutralBull
CYCLE
Late Expansion
FED STANCE
Cautious Hold
EQUITY
Underweight
SAFE HAVEN
Overweight
US Macro Indicators
Official Data
Updated on release
INFLATION
CPI YoY
FEB 26
3.2%
▲ +0.1ppAbove Target
Core CPI
FEB 26
3.8%
▲ +0.2ppSticky
Core PCE
JAN 26
2.8%
▲ +0.2ppSticky
PPI YoY
FEB 26
2.6%
▼ -0.1ppEasing
5Y Breakeven
Current
2.52%
▲ +3bpsElevated
EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment
FEB 26
4.1%
▲ +0.1ppNear Full
NFP MoM
FEB 26
+151K
↓ vs 170KMiss
Init. Claims
Mar 15
223K
▼ -1K WoWResilient
Avg Hrly Earn.
FEB 26
+3.9%
▲ vs 3.8%Sticky
JOLTS
JAN 26
7.74M
▲ +184KHealthy
CONFIDENCE
Consumer Conf.
MAR 26
92.9
▼ -7.2 ptsWeak
UMich Sentiment
MAR 26
57.9
▼ -4.4 pts2yr Low
ISM Mfg.
FEB 26
50.3
▲ +0.6Expanding
ISM Services
FEB 26
53.5
▲ +0.7Solid
Retail Sales
FEB 26
-0.9%
↓ vs +0.1%Miss
FED · RATES
Fed Funds
MAR 26
4.25%
— On HoldCautious
2Y/10Y Spread
Current
-18bps
InvertedCaution
Next Cut Prob.
Jun 26
62%
FedWatchLikely
Real Yield
10Y TIPS
+2.04%
▲ +5bpsRestrictive
GLOBAL
ECB Rate
MAR 26
2.65%
▼ CuttingDovish
China PMI
FEB 26
50.8
▲ vs 50.1Beat
Japan CPI
JAN 26
4.0%
▲ HotBoJ Risk
UK GDP QoQ
Q4 2025
+0.1%
StagnantWeak
Asset Class Views
AssetPriceDaily52WView
S&P 500———OW
Nasdaq 100———OW
Russell 2000———N
Gold XAU/USD———OW
WTI Crude Oil———OW
US Dollar DXY———UW
10Y Treasury———N
Bitcoin———N
VIX Index———Watch
Silver XAG/USD———OW
Economic Calendar
Fed Chair Powell Speech
Today · 10:00 ET
—Hawkish
US CPI MoM — March
Apr 10 · 08:30 ET
+0.3%+0.2%
Initial Jobless Claims
Apr 10 · 08:30 ET
225K223K
EIA Crude Inventories
Apr 10 · 10:30 ET
-1.8Mb+13.4Mb
FOMC Minutes Release
Apr 11 · 14:00 ET
—On Hold
US Core PPI MoM
Apr 11 · 08:30 ET
+0.2%+0.1%
UMich Sentiment Final
Apr 12 · 10:00 ET
58.057.9
JPMorgan Q1 Earnings
Apr 12 · Pre-mkt
$4.62 EPS$4.44
Research Alerts
🔴
Iran Conflict Escalates — Strait of Hormuz
Brent hit $119/bbl. 21% of global supply at risk. Geopolitical premium +$8/bbl active.
TODAY · MAXIMUM PRIORITY
🔴
Fed On Hold Through Q2 — Powell Hawkish
Signals no cuts. 2Y/10Y spread -18bps. Duration risk elevated. Short-end bias maintained.
MAR 19 · 14:00 ET
🟡
UMich Sentiment 57.9 — 2-Year Low
Inflation expectations surge to 4.9%. Stagflation risk rising. Defensive rotation underway.
MAR 14 · 10:00 ET
🟡
EIA Crude Build +13.4 Mb
Largest build since Nov 2023. Demand softness may cap the geopolitical oil rally.
MAR 10 · 18:30 ET
🔵
China PMI 50.8 — Beat Estimates
vs 50.1 est. Asia demand intact. EM equities and commodities supported.
MAR 08 · 08:00 ET
STRATE FUND
CPI YoY3.2%▲ Above 2% Fed Target
Core PCE2.8%▲ Sticky Above Target
Fed Funds4.25%● On Hold Mar 2026
NFP+151K▼ Miss vs 170K Est.
Unemployment4.1%● Near Full Employment
UMich Sentiment57.9▼ Lowest in 2 Years
Consumer Conf.92.9▼ -7.2 pts · Weak Demand
ISM Mfg.50.3▲ Expanding Zone
2Y/10Y Spread-18bps▼ Yield Curve Inverted
Iran ConflictEscalating▲ Brent $119 · Hormuz Risk
Next Cut Prob.62%● Jun 2026 · FedWatch
SF Regime Score34/100▼ Risk-Off · Defensive
CPI YoY3.2%▲ Above 2% Fed Target
Core PCE2.8%▲ Sticky Above Target
Fed Funds4.25%● On Hold Mar 2026
NFP+151K▼ Miss vs 170K Est.
Unemployment4.1%● Near Full Employment
UMich Sentiment57.9▼ Lowest in 2 Years
Consumer Conf.92.9▼ -7.2 pts · Weak Demand
ISM Mfg.50.3▲ Expanding Zone
2Y/10Y Spread-18bps▼ Yield Curve Inverted
Iran ConflictEscalating▲ Brent $119 · Hormuz Risk
Next Cut Prob.62%● Jun 2026 · FedWatch
SF Regime Score34/100▼ Risk-Off · Defensive
© STRATE FUND · Global Macro Intelligence Terminal · Prices: Yahoo Finance & TradingView · Not investment advice.